July excavator domestic sales to maintain double-digit growth in the second half of the equipment renewal speed or speed up the industry recovery.

June-September has entered the industry's traditional off-season sales, but in July this year, the domestic demand for excavators to maintain the momentum of recovery, the off-season is not bad, exports to end the first half of the downtrend, the monthly sales year-on-year basically flat, the turn signal is hidden.

 

June-September has entered the industry's traditional off-season sales, but in July this year, the domestic demand for excavators to maintain the momentum of recovery, the off-season is not bad, exports to end the first half of the downtrend, the monthly sales year-on-year basically flat, the turn signal is hidden. Communication with the construction machinery industry chain was informed that the overseas market is still the second half of the year and even next year's main incremental engine, the domestic demand market thanks to the project start-up rate of warming and equipment renewal speed, the second half of the year is expected to accelerate the recovery.

 

According to the China Construction Machinery Industry Association of the excavator of the main manufacturing enterprises statistics, 2024 July sales of various types of excavators 13,690 units, an increase of 8.6%, of which 6,234 units of domestic, an increase of 21.9%; exports of 7,456 units, a year-on-year decline of 0.51%. July sales of loaders in a single month increased by 27.1%, with a domestic growth of 24.7%.

 

From the downstream point of view, the domestic real estate market fluctuations are relatively large, the real estate sector remains under pressure. Infrastructure investment as the stabilizer of the economy, its growth rate is affected by a variety of factors, there is feedback from the industry that the current domestic demand side of the improvement is not obvious. However, due to the low base for the same period, equipment replacement cycle gradually opened and other factors, small and medium-sized excavator market began to resume growth. Due to the lower base of excavator exports in the second half of last year, it is expected that excavator exports are expected to turn positive in the second half of this year.

 

 

According to the statistics released by Yellow Table in 2022, after excluding the Chinese market, the market share of Chinese manufacturers in the overseas market is only about 7%, Zoomlion (000157.SZ) relevant person in charge of the market, said the overseas market profit margins are relatively high, the Chinese brands of construction machinery in the overseas market there is still a lot of market potential to improve, especially in the The "Belt and Road" countries. In the long run, the probability that the overall market share can be increased to about 20%. It is expected that in the next two years, the incremental business will mainly focus on overseas markets and will maintain a relatively high growth rate.

 

Has domestic demand bottomed out and stabilized?

 

"What is certain is that the worst is over." Some industry chain people said bluntly: from last year, including the issuance of trillions of treasury bonds, is expected to boost projects around the world to speed up the start of construction, including some farmland, water conservancy, hydropower and other infrastructure construction will usher in a larger development, these will be reflected in the future project start rate and completion rate and other data. In addition, the last round of construction machinery up cycle for 2016-2020, according to the 8-year service life, the last round of sales equipment has been in a large-scale life replacement period, combined with a series of policies introduced this year, will accelerate the backward equipment out of the clearing and replacement.

 

The person in charge of Zoomlion said that in recent years, with the rise of the company's excavator, high machine and other emerging businesses, the company's relatively high relevance to real estate, concrete and construction lifting machinery two plates, Q1 domestic revenue accounted for the proportion of the company's total revenue compared to earlier years has been significantly reduced. The company's future will focus on agricultural machinery, mining machinery and other fields, through a diversified layout to balance the industry cycle. According to reports, to open pit mining equipment, for example, its global market size of 100 billion U.S. dollars, the domestic 100 billion, the market volume of this segment is large, the impact of the cycle is small, has a good growth space.

 

Hengli Hydraulics Securities Department also believes that with the stabilization of the project volume of recovery superimposed on the equipment renewal policy traction, may be a certain degree to accelerate the recovery of the industry. This year the company's focus is to develop overseas customers and markets.

 

XCMG machinery in a few days ago to accept institutional research, said that the export market is expected to continue to maintain a good trend, the internationalization of revenue can still maintain good growth, the industry has been some positive signs of domestic sales, especially earth moving machinery for many months to achieve a positive turn. Trillions of yuan to issue additional bonds project, "large-scale equipment renewal" policy, may not appear in a short period of time, but in the medium and long term will help the industry to recover.

 

Combined with the current half-yearly results have been released in advance of the construction machinery company to see, net profit growth is mainly from two aspects: First, overseas revenue enhancement; Second is to reduce costs and improve efficiency to bring the product gross profit margins.